Who will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election and why?
Answer by Ardavan Farahvash:
Three months ago I would have said Hillary…
And who wouldn’t. With the Republican primary in a mess, and Hillary on top of Bernie Sanders, it seemed that she had a clear path to the presidency. She is the most qualified in terms of previous positions (by far), and the most experienced in terms of political tenure.
It just seems so right that a woman get the Presidency right after we elect the first black president. What a progressive moment that would be for America!
But I am not a slave to my preconceptions and based on the last 3 months I am now willing to bet my right nut it’s going to be Donald Trump. Trump did better in the Republican primary than I thought he would, than anyone thought he would. Not only did Trump’s campaign not fizzle out, but it has just kept gaining momentum as he won by bigger and bigger margins until Ted Cruz and John Kasich decided to stop wasting their time and drop out. Sure, the Republican party may not like him, but the Republican base does and that proved to be important. Now, as we move on to the general election, Donald Trump has a few advantages and will make a few key moves that I think will secure him the presidency, and we are already seeing him start to make said moves.
Below I have outlined the four major reasons why I think Trump is going to win the Presidency:
- Donald Trump is going to swing his politics, especially his economic stances to be center left. Unfortunately, Trump is not a idiot, he knows how to read the polls. He knows that for the most part Americans are on the center-left especially when it comes to economic issues. Americans like Social Security, they like minimum wage, they like taxes on the rich, hell they even like Obamacare. Trump knows this, and he has already began the process of shifting his political views so that they are in agreement with that of most Americans:. This is really a worst case scenario for Hillary because in the situation where Hillary and Trump are not substantially different in terms of economic policy, I do not think Hillary can win. What’s worse is Hillary can’t attack Trump for flip-flopping because she too has flip-flopped MANY times.
- Trump is infinitely more interesting than Hillary. Trump is an asshole, but he is a deeply charismatic asshole, like Bill Clinton charismatic. The guy is a professional personality, and the elephant in the room of every room he’s ever been in. When you are talking about winning the presidency it all comes down to how appealing you are to most Americans. Part of your appeal is your policies and your political history, but another part (perhaps a much more important part) is your charisma. I think charisma is why Obama beat Hillary in 2008, why Bush (sort of) beat Gore in 2000, and I think it will also be a large weak spot for Hillary against Trump.
- Trump is a man. Look, I agree that sexism is wrong. I am also voting for Hillary in the general election. But let’s face the truth, Hillary has a disadvantage in this race because of her gender, a disadvantage Trump is going to capitalize on. Let’s not forget, Trump has no decency. He is going to insinuate numerous times that because Hillary is a woman she is not fit to lead, and people are going to believe it, a lot of people. He won’t explicitly say that her gender makes her unfit, but he’ll hint to it. For example, he might say that she’s cold and callous, how that’s completely unfeminine of her, and people will think that means that she is also unfit to the President.
- Trump’s only disadvantage against Hillary are the numerous unfavorable statements he made in the Republican primary. I think Hillary’s best bet at beating him is to really use his previous statements against him. This might work, but I’m willing to bet that the American people have a short enough memory that pretty soon most won’t care about Trump’s most egregious statements. Will Trump still make numerous distasteful remarks and insults during the general election, sure I think he most certainly will. But I think that will just play into his charisma and his outsider persona which seems to be a big plus in this election.
TLDR: No one ever went broke overestimating the stupidity of the American people and that is why I believe Donald Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton. Brace yourselves, America (and the rest of the world).
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